Why Can't Macron Afford to Lose French Pacific Territory of New Caledonia?

France had promised to send troops to New Caledonia after a state of emergency was declared in the French Island Territory amid violent mass riots — triggered by Paris-backed changes to local voting rights.

The French government has deployed military units to New Caledonia amid continuing civil unrest in the French South Pacific territory.

The troops will back up police efforts to secure ports and the main airport in the capital. French President Emmanuel Macron has declared a state of emergency to last at least 12 days.

❗️France deploys an army at New Caledonia ports and airport.

TikTok is banned after riots, the Prime Minister said. pic.twitter.com/fM53WXKx3b

— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) May 15, 2024

Mayhem swept the French island territory after France’s parliament passed a new law overnight on Wednesday.

The French National Assembly voted 351-153 to pass a Paris-proposed constitutional amendment granting voting rights to French citizens who have lived in the overseas province of France for at least 10 years.

When France granted New Caledonia more political autonomy in line with the 1998 Nouméa Accord, it was decided to restrict voting rights in provincial and assembly elections to only those who were residents at the time. But since then over 40,000 French citizens are estimated to have moved to New Caledonia.

Declaring that restricting the voting franchise to indigenous Kanaks and citizens who lived in the territory before the accord was "undemocratic", French Home Affairs and Overseas minister Gérald Darmanin tabled the bill to extend voting rights to residents arriving from mainland France.

Burnt-out cars in the parking lot of the old hospital on the outskirts of Noumea on May 16, 2024, amid protests linked to a debate on a constitutional bill aimed at enlarging the electorate for upcoming elections of the overseas French territory of New Caledonia.

© AFP 2023 / DELPHINE MAYEUR

Critics of the legislation including the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) immediately pointed to the risk of the indigenous population becoming "marginalized" with the new law cutting their political representation in local institutions such as provincial assemblies and the local parliament.

After colonisation by France in the 19th century, New Caledonia officially became a French overseas territory in 1946. It has a population of around 300,000 people. Indigenous Kanaks number 112,000, or about 40 percent 112,000.

A state of emergency has been declared in New Caledonia amid mass riots

Earlier, the head of the Southern Province of French New Caledonia, Sonia Backes, demanded the intervention of the French Armed Forces to resolve the situation. "The situation is extremely serious,… pic.twitter.com/qwTesJYIfC

— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) May 15, 2024

Clashes erupted once the law was passed, with public buildings and cars torched. There have been reports of gunfire exchanged between rioters and civil defense groups and an attempted prison break-out.

Hundreds of people, including around 100 police and gendarmes, have been injured. At least five people have reportedly died in the violence gripping Noumea, including a gendarme. A curfew was declared and TikTok banned. FLNKS has condemned the violence, urging dialogue to resolve the crisis.

In another twist to the developments, France was urged to “stop a smear campaign” against Azerbaijan after Gerard Darmanin alleged links between Baku and the leaders of the independence movement of New Caledonia during an interview with France-2.

Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesman Aykhan Hajizad emphatically rejected the claim and condemned the French side’s “insulting expressions.”

The Normandie provincial road, outside Noumea on May 16, 2024, amid protests linked to a debate on a constitutional bill aimed at enlarging the electorate for upcoming elections of the overseas French territory of New Caledonia.

© AFP 2023 / DELPHINE MAYEUR

The 1998 Nouméa Accord also allowed for three referenda on the country's independence. The first two resulted in slim majorities for the No campaign. A third, in December 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic, was boycotted by pro-independence parties, raising tensions.

Why New Caledonia Matters

There are several underlying causes of the current crisis in New Caledonia.

Firstly, New Caledonia’s natural wealth. New Caledonia ranks third among the top nickel producers, boasting around 11 percent of the world's total nickel reserves. This highly versatile metal is a crucial component in the transition to electric vehicles. New Caledonia produced 193,800 tons of nickel in 2023, according to GlobalData, out of 3.3 million tonnes globally.

The colony's economy relies on processing and exporting nickel. There are also large deposits of chromium, cobalt, iron, and magnesium. Its other exports include fuel, shellfish, scrap metal and fish. The territory's principal importers are mainland France, Japan, Australia, the US, South Korea, Spain and Belgium.

Secondly, New Caledonia is one of five island territories straddling the Indo-Pacific region that France wishes to keep control over. It is located at the heart of the geopolitically important maritime region witnessing heightened jostling for influence.

New Caledonia as viewed by France a regional “hub” to implement its Indo-Pacific strategy, relying on its military presence on the island.

The New Caledonian Armed Forces (FANC) have three army bases, the Pointe Chalaix Naval Base, and Air Force and Naval Aviation based at the Paul Klein Air Base. In 2022 France announced it would increase its military surveillance potential in the Pacific by building a new docking quay at the Chaleix naval base.

Continuing to retain its grasp on New Caledonia can be seen as central to Macron’s ambitions of boosting French influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Thirdly, the developments in New Caledonia also come as Macron has been seeking to recover his reputational losses over the debaccle in France's former African colonies.

In 2022, the French military was forced to leave Mali. Burkina Faso and Niger also expressed their opposition to the presence of French troops. In the aftermath of the military takeover on July 26, 2023, supported by the majority of the Nigerien population, the government demanded that the French military pull out from the region. French soldiers finally left Niger in December 2023. Where the US and French presence shrank in the region, Russia stepped in, with its forces taking over counterterrorism activities and training.

New Caledonia's political future remains uncertain. The pro-France outcome of the 2021 referendum, was rejected by all independence parties including the oldest — the Union Calédonienne (UC) — which boycotted it. French Loyalists have claimed that existing voting restrictions exclude thousands of potentially pro-France voters.

With local elections looming in May, French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin indicated the need for a solution — which came in the form of the constitutional amendment on voting rights. But this needed to be pushed through in time for the May vote, offering up a “broader electorate.”

The president of then New Caledonian Congress, elected under previous rules, is Louis Mapou — an indigenous Kanak. The congress also has a pro-independence majority.

Emmanuel Macron has delayed ratifying the amendment, allowing for negotiations with representatives of the French territory in Paris, but has set a deadline of June for a settlement to be reached.